The new IMRWorld European e-Christmas Sales Forecast reveals for the first time how the internet is helping hard-pressed shoppers throughout Europe to cope with the tough economic conditions. IMRWorld, the international arm of IMRG, estimates that €52bn will be spent online during the 8-week shopping run-up to Christmas (starting w/c 30^th October - ending 24^th December).

The UK, which has the largest market in Europe and the highest levels of cross-border sales, will account for 30% of that total.

We estimate that €17.5bn of this (almost 30%) will be spent in the first two weeks of December alone, which over the past two years have been identified by IMRG as the peak activity weeks. These peaks will follow a steady increase in activity throughout November.

Aad Weening, Head of International at IMRG comments: “Online shopping comes into its own at Christmas as the primary trade route for millions of consumers across Europe who have so much to buy and organise in short inclement days and, now, on extremely tight budgets. We have introduced the IMRWorld European e-Christmas Sales Forecast to track and trace this important trade, which is rapidly becoming a key indicator of consumer confidence. Looking at Europe as a whole, there are marked differences in online shopping between the North and South, as well as between the East and West: this is because internet penetration and online shopping are more mature in the North, so the sales volumes tend to be higher while the annual growth rate is lower; meanwhile, basket sizes tend to be larger and more valuable in Eastern European countries, especially in Russia, reflecting the greater affluence of their consumers.”

The number of people shopping online varies from country to country. For example, only 23% of Polish consumers currently shop online, whereas 50% of Germans and Spanish, 60% of French and Italians and over 70% of British, Dutch and Scandinavians are expected to purchase goods via the internet this Christmas. In coming years the rapid and almost universal adoption of mobile internet will lead to many millions more shopping online.

The strength of the European online market
Based upon our most recent research, IMRG and IMRWorld are now estimating that the global e-commerce market will be worth around €675bn by the end of 2011. This is less than the forecast earlier in 2011 as growth rate expectations have slowed in some regions, notably North America. However, the outlook for European growth on the whole remains strong.

The European online retail market was estimated to have been worth €213bn in 2010. This total equalled North America. For 2011 the European B2C online market is forecasted to grow to €254bn, far ahead of North America on €225bn. 2011 will be the first year Europe is the number one online shopping region. This dominance is forecast to continue in later years when the online markets in Eastern and Southern Europe will continue to grow faster than the mature markets.

At present, the UK represents over 30% of European online sales. The UK market is arguably the most sophisticated and competitive in the world, recording 18% growth in 2010. European and international customers are more and more purchasing from UK online retailers. However, the growth rates in countries with less developed markets are impressive: Greece and Ireland, who have suffered among the worst during the recession, recorded growth rates of 75% and 39% respectively in 2010. As the above table shows, more developed markets such as France, Spain and Italy are also currently growing at very strong rates.

Source: EmarketServices